DesMoines Register's Final Iowa Poll

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucus goers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.
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C-Span Interview with J. Ann Selzer
Des Moines Register Poll Director Part 1

Discuss the poll outcome and meteorology
General rules of caucus
1600 Iowa registered voters were interview 800 from each party.



C-Span Interview with J. Ann Selzer
Des Moines Register Poll Director Part 2

Holidays and Polls
We use cell Phone numbers
How do the polls reflect when one switches parties.
Data shows Its a generational gap not a gender gap.

Base " Core Group

Hillary- 55 and Old Women
Edwards-55 and Old Men
Obama-18-55

Trending
Independents trend towards Dem Caucus

High Turnout
Dem will have a higher turnoutHigher first time Caucus goers
More time to see the candidates
More active candidates
More money spent



C-Span Interview with J. Ann Selzer
Des Moines Register Poll Director Part 3

Sorry my TIVO took a break when I ran to the store- I did not record the end of the interview-I hope to catch Ann Later

Issues
Republicans-Immigration
Democrats-Iraq War and then Health Care