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Friday, February 22, 2008

Texas Early Polling

Clinton 48.5%
Obama 45.7%

Early Voting Numbers: The Higher the percentage of Hispanic voters in a county, the lower the early voting turnout

The Field believes those numbers to reveal three things:

1. The Clinton field organization is missing-in-action and/or the Obama organization is more muscular than imagined.

2. First-day early voting turnout is probably a pretty good enthusiasm indicator and thus provides a window to foresee how the caucus turnout will be, region to region, on the evening of March 4.

3. Don’t underestimate the probability of indecision at work: Hispanics – we repeat – don’t have a history of voting in blocs, the Obama campaign is aggressively courting Hispanic-American votes, and, just as in polling, vote-switching registers first as movement into the “undecided” camp.

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