Friday, February 22, 2008
Texas Early Polling
Early Voting Numbers: The Higher the percentage of Hispanic voters in a county, the lower the early voting turnout
The Field believes those numbers to reveal three things:
1. The Clinton field organization is missing-in-action and/or the Obama organization is more muscular than imagined.
2. First-day early voting turnout is probably a pretty good enthusiasm indicator and thus provides a window to foresee how the caucus turnout will be, region to region, on the evening of March 4.
3. Don’t underestimate the probability of indecision at work: Hispanics – we repeat – don’t have a history of voting in blocs, the Obama campaign is aggressively courting Hispanic-American votes, and, just as in polling, vote-switching registers first as movement into the “undecided” camp.