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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

New Polls....Pennsylvania


Remember, Clinton's baseline is about 20 points in Pennsylvania.

Rasmussen. 3/24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/12 results)

Clinton 49 (51)
Obama 39 (38)

Could be just statistical noise from the last edition, though back on 3/5, Clinton had a 52-37 lead in this poll.

This, on the other hand, seems more significant to me:

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. That’s down from 76% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 71%, a figure that is little changed from 72% earlier in the month.

Could the Bosnia lie be a factor here? This poll was conducted yesterday, so perhaps. More interestingly is that Obama hasn't suffered his favorability ratings despite the Wright mess. Chances are, those numbers would've looked differently had this thing been polled last week. But apparently, Obama has made up whatever ground he lost.

Then there's this:

If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, just 55% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. That’s down two points from 57%.
If Clinton is the nominee, just 55% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. That’s down nine points from 64%.

That's mostly bluster. The majority of Democrats will vote for the Democrat. Likewise, no matter how much conservative talk radio hosts bitch about McCain, the majority of Republicans will vote for him.

The big question isn't who will vote for who, but how much effort they'll put into getting their candidate elected. McCain inspires little excitement. And the way this Democratic nomination is going, the increasing bitterness will likely dampen some of the enthusiasm on our side. And that will be particularly pronounced if we see a coup by super delegate.

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