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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Obama bouncing back

Wed Mar 19, 2008

I noted over the weekend that the Wright controversy had taken a chunk out of Obama's national numbers in Rasmussen's tracking poll. Early indicators are that the speech may be sending him back up.

Obama Clinton
March 19: 47 42
March 18: 45 44 -- Obama's speech
March 17: 46 44
March 16: 47 44
March 15: 46 45
March 14: 50 42
March 13: 48 41 -- Wright hits news
March 12: 47 42
March 11: 48 41 -- Mississippi
March 10: 46 44
March 9: 45 47
March 8: 45 46 --Wyoming
March 7: 43 49
March 6: 43 48
March 5: 43 48
March 4: 44 46 -- OH, TX, VT, RI

This is a four-day rolling average, so each day gives us a 25% fresh sample. You can see that in the drop of Obama's numbers after the Wright controversy hit the scene. It was first reported on last Thursday (13th), got wide airing on Friday (14th), then four days later, on the 18th, it hit its lowest point of the week.

That means that only about a quarter of this sample size is post-speech. We'll have a much better picture of its impact in the next 3-5 days.

Also, kind of funny that Obama got a bigger boost out of winning Wyoming and Mississippi than Clinton did out of winning Texas and Ohio. Though I'm being facetious. In reality, Clinton's bump in the poll was more an artificial response to her victories March 4 than a substantive shift in support, so she was bound to come back down to earth anyway, with or without her subsequent defeats.

Update: Gallup shows the exact opposite happening, with Clinton holding a 49-42 lead over Obama. Gallup uses a three-day rolling sample.

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