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Friday, March 28, 2008

Obama survives Wright, Clinton fares poorly on credibility

ANDREW KOHUT, President, Pew Research Center A Pew Research Center poll finds that Americans have a strongly negative view of the economy, are closely split over support for presidential candidates and that the controversial remarks of Sen. Barack Obama's former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, have not hurt the candidate's campaign. Pollster Andy Kohut explains the numbers.

video

By Kos

General election matchups

McCain 43 (43)
Obama 50 (49)

McCain 45 (44)
Clinton 50 (49)

Primary

Clinton 39 (40)
Obama 49 (49)

Obama's handling of the Wright situation

Excel/Good Fair/Poor

Tot 51 42

Rep 33 61
Dem 66 28
Ind 48 42

Obama Supporters 84 12
Clinton Supporters 43 52 Republicans 33

Obama Clinton

Inspiring 80 65
Down-to-earth 78 63
Honest 79 66
Patriotic 78 90
Phony 16 30
Hard-to-like 13 43

The Jed Report:ObamaIsWinning

There's been no shortage of public handwringing about whether or not Barack Obama can attract support from white voters, particularly white men. Some of it has even been pushed by Hillary Clinton's campaign itself.

Most of the analysis has overlooked one important fact, however: Hillary Clinton has a bigger problem with white voters than Barack Obama.

New data from the Pew Research Center illustrates my point: although Hillary Clinton leads McCain among white women by three points, she trails among white men by twenty-three points. Meanwhile, Obama trails among white women by just one point, and trails among white men by fifteen. Obama's net margin relative to Clinton drops by four points among white women, but increases by eight points among white men.

Overall, that means Obama is doing slightly better with white voters than is Hillary Clinton.

And this is according to a poll conducted entirely after the Wright controversy played itself out.

Here's the data:

Update II: I neglected to make the point that that Obama's 43% support among white voters is actually strong -- especially in the wake of Wright. In 1992, Bill Clinton won 39% of white voters. In 1996, he won 43%. In 2000, Gore won 42%. In 2004, Kerry won 41%. So 43% is a pretty good starting point, especially with 7% undecided. (Obama currently trails McCain by 7%, while Gore lost by 12% and Kerry lost by 17%.)



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