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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

A Closer Look At The Numbers

Clinton is losing ground, Ohio's 10.5% win has become a 8.6% win in Pennsylvania. As you look over the gains Barack made I don't have to remind you that those gains were made despite the targeted attempts of Hillary, Bill, John, Rush, George, GOP and the Media.

The Media Created "Delusion" That Hillary Can Win





Kos, Daily Kos takes a closer look at the Demographics:

  • Obama's percent of the vote:

    OH PA

    60 and older 28 38
    White 34 38
    White men 39 44
    White women 31 34
    Less than $50K 42 46
    No college 40 38
    College 51 49
    Catholic 36 31
    Protestant 36 53



Chuck Todd Projections:



'The Pledged Delegate Race Is Over – Impossible for Obama to Lose His Lead'











Clinton's Momentum and Superdelegates




Clinton Money Woes and The End Game




Total votes

Clinton

Obama

Projection

NC

1,500,000

675,000

825,000

45%-55%

IN

900,000

460,000

440,000

51%-49%

WV

400,000

240,000

160,000

60%-40%

KY

500,000

300,000

200,000

60%-40%

OR

600,000

270,000

330,000

45%-55%

SD

100,000

45,000

55,000

45%-55%

MT

125,000

56,250

68,750

45%-55%

TOTAL


2,046,250

2,078,750





  • So those remaining contests, per this conservative projection, bring Obama’s popular vote lead to 515,629. If you add Florida, that gives Clinton almost another 300,000 more. So you if you include the Sunshine State, Obama will still lead her by about 215,000 popular votes. No wonder Clinton herself decided to start talking about Michigan again, because she can't "win" the popular vote without it. The problem: Even many Clinton supporters believe it’s not a valid measurement.

    Whats most important numbers in the PA race is Hillary campaign is in the red and the media is reporting it.

Marc Ambinber is following the money:


  • She has no money.
    More important than anything she'll do over the next few days, Clinton will try to use tonight's results to raise money through the net. (Notice the banner behind the stage at her victory party. It says HillaryClinton.com for a reason.)
    If the margin of victory is big enough to allow her campaign to raise two or three million dollars in 48 hours, then her supporters are convinced that she still has a shot. Her margin was big enough.
    If she can't raise money off of her margin, then her supporters are resigned to her defeat.
    She needs money to continue. If she runs out of money, she won't be able to continue.


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