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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Hillary, The Tride Turned Months Ago

The Clinton spin:

The Tide is Turning. After last night's decisive victory in Pennsylvania, more people have voted for Hillary than any other candidate, including Sen. Obama.

The WaPo's Pinocchio test:

By any measure, double digits or not, Clinton won an impressive victory in Pennsylvania. But it is misleading for her to suggest that she has now overtaken her rival in the popular vote.

Jed Report:

Assuming he ends up leading by 150 pledged delegates (again, a very conservative estimate), to secure the nomination Obama would at that point need just 29% of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates. Piece of cake.

The great thing about these numbers is that the best case scenario on this chart is actually probably a worst case scenario in reality.

At this point, as I've been saying, it's not a question of whether or if Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

It's a question of when and how. Those are important questions, and not just for our state of mind. We want a narrative of Barack Obama's victory that allows him to triumphantly cross the finish line.

At least the most important question is already resolved: Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

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