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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Indiana and North Carolina polls



Indiana

Clinton Obama

Downs Center 45 50
Times/Bloomberg 35 40
SUSA 55 39
ARG 53 44
R2K 49 46

The Pollster.com composite is Clinton 49, Obama 43. Indiana will be tight. I suspect both candidates can legitimately win this state, and neither will by more than 5 points in either
direction. In fact, this is the only state left in the calendar in which the ultimate outcome is actually in doubt.



North Carolina

Clinton Obama

SUSA 41 50
PPP 32 57
ARG 41 52
IA 36 51
Times/Bloomberg 34 47
Rasmussen 33 56


The Pollster.com composite is Clinton 36.1, Obama 54.5.

PPP blew Pennsylvania badly, so perhaps they'll be a little more humble about North Carolina since, once again, they're playing the "outlier" role. This state will likely give back Obama everything he lost in Pennsylvania, both in the popular vote and delegates.

Update: There's some confusion over "the lastest SUSA poll in Indiana", which supposedly has Obama up by 5.

That Downs Center poll was indeed conducted by SUSA. But it's not a SUSA poll. Downs Center used their own methodology to establish the parameters of the poll. All SUSA did was collect the data. So it's not a true SUSA poll in the sense that SUSA's voter screens, voter pool, and results weighing weren't used. So you can't compare it to the previous SUSA poll. It's apples and oranges.

(h/t Kos)

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