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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Much Ado About Nothing

The polls conducted after the flap about Obama's 'Bitter' comments, there's almost no change. One poll has a 4 point swing to Obama, another a 4 point swing to Clinton (both within the MoE), and the third has results identical to the previous survey.

All polls of likely voters:

Quinnipiac 4/9-13. MoE 2.1% (4/3-6 results)

Clinton 50 (50)
Obama 44 (44)

SurveyUSA 4/12-14. MoE 3.9% (4/5-7 results)

Clinton 54 (56)
Obama 40 (38)

Rasmussen 4/14. MoE 4.0% (4/7 results)

Clinton 50 (48)
Obama 41 (43)

Susquehanna(pdf) 4/6-10. MoE 4.4% (3/5-10 results)

Clinton 40 (45)
Obama 37 (31)

Update: The fourth SurveyUSA tracking poll, released exclusively for NBC 10 and three other television stations throughout the state, concluded that the contest is "not necessarily tightening, nor is it considered a "tight race."

It concluded that 54 percent would vote for Clinton and 40 percent would vote for Obama. Three percent chose the "other" category.

The remaining three percent of likely voters said they were undecided. The margin of error for the question was 3.9 percent. Clinton has a slight advantage among men, just as she has in the past three of four Survey USA polls. She also has a significant advantage among women, which has been consistent through all four polls.Clinton has polled at 55, 53, 56 and 54 percent in the SurveyUSA polls, while Obama has polled 36, 41, 38 and 40 percent.

However, the contest remains tight in Southeast Pennsylvania, which includes Philadelphia. The poll also found that Obama gained ground among Democrats who attend religious services regularly. In the Pittsburgh and Johnstown areas, Clinton gained ground, while Obama picked up support in the Harrisburg area.The 1,600 interviewees were questioned for the poll Saturday through Monday.

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