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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Head to Head Poll: Pennsylvania

Nutcracker

Josh Marshall,TMP

SurveyUSA is doing a series of McCain vs. Obama head to head match-up polls in different states testing an almost mystifying number of vice presidential possibilities for each nominee. Their poll of Pennsylvania is out today. And the snapshot is that John Edwards -- someone who I don't think many have considered as a Veep possibility this year -- is, from this poll at least, Obama's strongest pick.

The real headline though is the baseline number: McCain vs. Obama without veep nominees attached. On that SurveyUSA has Obama beating McCain 48% to 40%. And this, remember, was the nut Obama wasn't supposed to be able to crack.

You can see the range of possibilities here, which go from a very narrow McCain lead to an Obama landslide.

To be clear, I do not expect Obama to win Pennsylvania in a landslide. I think it will be very tight. But this is a potent corrective to the idea that Obama can't win the state.


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