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Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Did I say Landslide: Check Out New Indiana Poll

by kos

I've got to say that I really didn't expect this.

SurveyUSA. 6/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4% (2/26-28 results)

McCain (R) 47 (50)
Obama (D) 48 (41)










Democratic and independent women are trending Obama. He made a solid 35-point gain among independents and decent 8-point gain among Democrats. Both candidates have nearly equal support among their base, leaving the decision up to independents. If Obama can hold on to them, we'll see Indiana turn Blue. Still hard to believe, but the numbers have consistently suggested a closer race than you'd expect from a state Bush won 60-39 in 2004.

The small subsample size of the racial breakdown (blacks are 7 percent of the sample) means we get ridiculous results like McCain getting 14 percent of the black vote. He won't, obviously.


PA-Pres, MI-Pres: trends look good

MICHIGAN

Public Policy Polling (PDF). 6/21-22. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (No trendlines)

McCain (R) 39
Obama (D) 48

The Pollster.com composite now gives Obama a nice 46.5-40.7 advantage, finally turning the state blue after a few weeks of a McCain lead.


PENNSYLVANIA

Rasmussen. 6/19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/21 results)

McCain (R) 42 (43)
Obama (D) 46 (45)

That looks more like float with the MoE than a real gain, but at least it's trending in the right direction. This poll now pushes the Pollster.com composite score up to Obama 48, McCain 40.5.

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