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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Kos Poll Report

MN-Pres: Rare good news for GOP

SurveyUSA. 6/13-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.3% (5/16-18 results)

McCain (R) 46 (42)
Obama (D) 47 (47)

The internals:

6/16 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
McCain 46 57 35 81 14 51
Obama 47 37 57 15 82 40

5/18 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
McCain 42 51 34 85 13 36
Obama 47 40 53 10 76 50

This poll shows movement to McCain from independents, while Democrats continue to rally behind Obama. It's worth noting that this poll cuts against the trend lines in this state. The Pollster.com composite still shows a double-digit Obama lead -- 50.3-40.3. Is this an outlier, or a precursor? Time will tell.


WI-Pres: And another growing Obama lead

SurveyUSA. 6/13-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.3% (5/16-18 results)

McCain (R) 43 (42)
Obama (D) 52 (48)

The internals:

Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi
McCain 43 51 35 88 5 42 45
Obama 52 45 58 9 91 48 50

The Pollster.com composite score is Obama 49, McCain 42.6. I currently consider any state within single digits as a "swing state", but this thing is trending away from McCain.




PA-Pres: Obama opens wide lead

Quinnipiac. 6/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (5/13-20 results)

McCain (R) 40 (40)
Obama (D) 52 (46)

The internals:

Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi Bla
McCain 40 47 34 79 14 39 44 1
Obama 52 45 57 16 78 50 47 95

I thought that Obama wasn't able to win white people anywhere, especially Pennsylvania, because Clinton won that demographic! And wait, what's this? Obama wins non-college educated whites in the state 47-44? But I was told by the Clinton campaign and the media that it would never happen!

Of course, that was always b.s. And I don't mean to belabor the point, or open up old wounds, but it's important to remember that political spin and CW are oftentimes wrong, and sometimes comically wrong.

As for Pennsylvania, at this rate, this won't be much of a swing state for long. The Pollster.com composite score is Obama 48.7, McCain 40.1. But look at the trend lines:

Delicious, huh? Given the cost of contesting Pennsylvania, and McCain's poor finances, and considering the Obama campaign's massive organizing and voter registration in the state, Republicans may be forced to surrender the state with little fight. And with Pennsylvania secure, Obama can wreak even more havoc in supposedly safe Red States.

FL-Pres: Obama takes the lead

Quinnipiac. 6/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (5/13-20 results)

McCain (R) 43 (45)
Obama (D) 47 (41)

The internals:

Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi Bla
McCain 43 47 40 85 12 37 50 4
Obama 47 44 50 11 82 47 40 95

Too bad Q didn't break out Hispanics from the sample. It likely would've shown more CW-busting evidence that Obama is doing well with that group.

I'm still having a hard time believing that Florida is this competitive, but it's hard to argue with the numbers. The Pollster.com composite is narrowing, with McCain holding on to a tight lead -- McCain 44.4, Obama 42.7.

Update: Poblabo sez:

If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. More frustratingly for McCain, he had spent the better part of three days in Florida earlier this month, hoping to raise doubts about Obama among Jewish voters. Although Quinnipiac does not break out the Jewish vote, Obama holds a 61-31 lead in Southeast Florida, where most of the state's Jewish population is concentrated.

The notion that Obama won't get the Jewish vote is as ridiculous as the one that he couldn't win Hispanics or low-income whites or women or whatever. All of it is fiction. Always was.

Update II: Pollster.com hadn't updated their composite score when I posted this, so I was going off older numbers. The new numbers are now Obama 44.5, McCain 44.1, and the graph looks like this:




OH-Pres: Another poll, another Obama lead

Quinnipiac. 6/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (5/13-20 results)

OHIO MoE 2.6%

McCain (R) 42 (44)
Obama (D) 48 (40)

The internals:

Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi Bla
McCain 42 46 39 87 13 45 47 6
Obama 48 45 51 7 80 43 44 90

Among whites with no college degree, McCain leads by a narrow 46-43 margin. Obama's deficit among whites is also narrow (effectively tied). He still has room to improve among Democrats, which isn't good news for McCain.

Obama is opening up a nice lead in the Pollster.com composite -- Obama 46.2, McCain 41.9.

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