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Sunday, June 15, 2008

Landslide Watch:Obama 65% Win: Landslide Possibility of 29.6%

Sat Jun 14, 2008 at 09:10:46 PM PDT

Nate Silver/ Poblano of 538.com has updated his site and methods in two important ways, which I'll explain below. First off, lets look at the gorgeous results.

Obama is projected to win the Popular vote by 2.8%; a 65% likelihood of victory... and 30% chance for 375+ E-V's

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Obama's numbers surged in February, when he was winning one primary after another. They slumped in March and early April, as stories like bittergate and Jeremiah Wright dominated the landscape. They have since been gradually improving, but particularly so in the last two weeks since he wrapped up the nomination.

Reading the map, Obama's lean states are now looking blue, while McCain's defense states are turning whiter... New Hampshire has flipped among others.

Nate basically tweaked the model in two ways:

1- He updates grouped polls in states to mirror new poll results from other states. For instance, when several polls show big gains as they did this week, his model then makes changes to other states not polled, such as Florida, making the whole system more fluid.

This adjustment presently results in an increase of about 2 points in Barack Obama's projected popular vote margin. Because a large number of states in this election are very close, this results in a somewhat dramatic-seeming change in Obama's win percentage and electoral vote projection. Interestingly, Obama's current win percentage of 64.7 percent almost exactly matches the price of Democratic contracts on Intrade, which also has the Democrats with a 64 percent chance of winning the election.

2- He's introduced a larger amount of prior data / errors accounting for polling from 1988-2004 and trends/changes that happen over time, especially things like June leads lost by November. It shows that things are much more fluid than they appeared in his earlier model.

Interesting, Still not accounted for are the dramatic shifts that are occurring in Party ID nationwide. I wrote about it last night and will rehash here...

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From a discussion on Trends in Wisconsin, a real swing state that is usually decided by less than 1%, actual real discernible Party ID movement, the stuff of glaciers, is clearly visible.

Starting in 2005, however, there is an initially slow but then sharper shift in partisanship. Republican ID declines from about 30% to about 24% today, while Dem ID rises from about 30% to nearly 40%.

It's not just Wisconsin, it's national, and its popping up everywhere.

Gallup

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Rasmussen

The Democratic Party maintained its huge edge in party identification during the month of May. Barack Obama’s Party now has the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

During the month of April, 41.7% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats. Just 31.6% said they were Republicans and 26.6%

And finally, Pew

In 5,566 interviews with registered voters conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press during the first two months of 2008, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, and just 27% as Republicans.

The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.

The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.

This is happening everywhere, in every state...

Red states are showing alot more blue

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Nationwide, Democrats or Lean Left = 51% of the Electorate (vs. 37% "Center-Right")

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And the landscape looks great in Swing States generally

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Party ID Changes are certainly affecting the landscape. It's a built in margin that is beginning to show finally now that the Unity is happening within the party. It explains the Party's message of Unity and Obama's stressing McCain as Bush v. 3.0, because that will drive our team to the polls... just incase they weren't inspired.

And incase you needed inspiration... wondering if there would be a ground game to get us there, take this to heart...

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