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Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Another Poll Shows Very Close Race In North Carolina

Another poll shows a very close race in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1976 -- suggesting yet again that Barack Obama could be on the cusp of dramatically expanding the map for Dems.

The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): McCain 47%, Obama 44%, and Barr 3%, with a ±3.4% margin of error. Four weeks ago, it was McCain 45%, Obama 41%, and Barr 5%.

The racial breakdown is very interesting in this poll, with Barack Obama getting 34% of the white vote compared to John Kerry's 27% in 2004. Black voters only make up 20% of the electorate in this poll, compared to 26% in 2004. If Obama can maintain the proportion of the white vote he has here, with an electorate that looks like 2004, he could win it in the end.

Late Update: For his part, Tom Jensen at PPP e-mailed us to say that he believes the figure showing African-Americans making up 26% of the electorate in the 2004 North Carolina exit poll was wrong. He believes the 20% estimate used here is more on target

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