Landslide Watch: AZ Poll: Trouble at Home for McCain?

by mcjoan, Dailykos

Christian Science Monitor posed the question, "Can McCain deliver his home state?"

For a senator who consistently gets 80 percent approval ratings from Arizonans, it seems strange, bizarre even, that John McCain would not be a shoo-in to win his home state in November's presidential election. Some in-state analysts say chances are fair, in fact, that Arizona will end up in the Democratic column....

A big part of the uncertainty may be that the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee has not distanced himself enough from the Bush administration to satisfy the one-third of state voters who are independents. But Senator McCain has also seen his support erode among Arizona’s avid Bush supporters and social conservatives, for not backing the president on issues dear to their hearts. Toss in the resources and clout of Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who will be pulling hard for her party’s nominee, and anything can happen.

That story line is gaining some steam with new results from Rasmussen out Arizona:

Rasmussen. 6/25. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (4/15 results)

McCain (R) 49 (57)
Obama (D) 40 (37)