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Thursday, August 07, 2008

National Polls Show Obama Holding His Lead

CBS 7/31-8/5/08 (RV) (July):
Obama 45 (45)
McCain 39 (39)

Obama's lead over McCain is built on stronger support from Democrats, liberals, African Americans, voters under age 45 and women. Most former supporters of Hillary Clinton are backing Obama, as are a plurality of working class whites, a group Obama struggled to attract during the primary.

McCain leads among conservatives, Republicans, white evangelicals and voters age 45 and over. The presumptive GOP nominee has a narrow lead with men and with whites.

Independents are evenly split between the two candidates.

From the detailed .pdf:

The enthusiasm gap remains: Obama’s supporters are three times as likely as McCain’s to be enthusiastic about their candidate.

BTW Bush's job approval is at 25%, equaling his all-time low (only Nixon at 24% and Truman at 22% were ever lower).

AP-Ipsos 7/31-8/4/08 (RV) (June):
Obama 47 (50)
McCain 41 (43)

TIME (LV with leaners) 7/31-8/4/08 (June):
Obama 46 (47)
McCain 41 (43)

CBS News re-interviewed voters who said they were uncommitted, including those who had a candidate but said their minds could change, when we first spoke with them in a CBS News/New York Times poll in mid-July. In the July poll, that was about 36 percent of all registered voters.

The most recent round of interviews suggest that these uncommitted voters remain largely up for grabs.

Seven in ten remain uncommitted. And while a quarter of this group now say they have made a commitment to a candidate that they don’t think will change before the election, about as many as a month ago don’t have a candidate choice at all yet.

This group seems to have become less interested in the campaign since last month. When asked in mid-July how much attention they’d been paying to the 2008 campaign generally, 45 percent said they’d paid a lot. When asked in this poll how much attention they’d been paying in the last few weeks, only 18 percent reported paying a lot of attention.

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