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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Despite McCain Bounce, Race Remains Tight In Four Key States

Sen. Obama campaigned in Virginia Wednesday.

A new set of CNN battleground state polls, all conducted in the days after the Republican convention wrapped up, suggests the presidential race remains close in four key states despite John McCain's national bounce:

In Michigan, which voted for John Kerry by three points in 2004, Barack Obama is ahead 51%-45%.

In Missouri, which George W. Bush carried by seven points in 2004, John McCain currently has a 50%-45% lead.

In New Hampshire, which went to Kerry by a very narrow one-point margin, Obama is up 51%-45%.

In Virginia, which Bush carried by eight points but has also become much bluer in the last four years, McCain has a lead of 50%-46%.

Overall, Dems can be cautiously optimistic about these numbers. McCain has been riding a post-convention bounce, but has only narrow leads in just two of the four state. And the numbers aren't wildly different from the pre-convention surveys from other firms, suggesting that the bounce may not have affected these particular areas all that much.

The polls for Michigan, Missouri and New Hampshire all have a margin of error of ±3%, while the margin in Virginia is ±3.5%

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