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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Post-conventions battleground state polls

All of these recent polls have been conducted during McCain's post-convention bounce. In a way, this is the new baseline -- if McCain can maintain these levels, he's in about as good shape as he can be. Otherwise, Obama can reassert his advantage. We'll know more in the coming weeks.

So the new baseline, with just post-convention polls:


Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 46, Obama 49 (Trend: McCain 49, Obama 48)

Ras thinks Obama got the bounce in the Rocky Mountain state.


Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 48, Obama 48 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 46)
PPP: McCain 50, Obama 45 (Trend: McCain 47, Obama 44)


CNN/Time: McCain 45, Obama 49
PPP: McCain 46, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 43, Obama 46
Strategic Vision (R): McCain 44, Obama 45


CNN/Time: McCain 50, Obama 45


Rasmussen: McCain 53, Obama 42 (Trend: McCain 47, Obama 47)

New Hampshire

CNN/Time: McCain 45, Obama 51

New Mexico

Rasmussen: McCain 49, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 44, Obama 48)

Need more data to confirm, but at least Ras thinks there was a McCain bounce in the state.

North Carolina

PPP: McCain 48, Obama 44 (Trend: McCain 47, Obama 44)
SurveyUSA: McCain 58, Obama 38 (Trend: McCain 49, Obama 45)

Ummm.... Someone actually flubbed this one. There's lots of discussion about the difference in these two polls, and whether pollsters that don't control for party samples (like SUSA) are "biased" or "rigged". I tend to believe that everything averages out in the end, so I'd rather look at the poll aggregates, and the more polls we have, the more accurate that aggregate will be. To that end, I'm glad to know that Daily Kos will be publishing its latest Research 2000 poll of NC tomorrow. More like SUSA, or more like PPP? We'll know in 24 hours.

North Dakota

Rasmussen: McCain 55, Obama 41 (Trend: McCain 43, Obama 43)

Huge McCain bounce according to Ras.


Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 51, Obama 44 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 43)


Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 45, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 45, Obama 48)
Strategic Vision (R): McCain 45, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 40, Obama 49)


CNN/Time: McCain 50, Obama 46
Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 49, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 47)
SurveyUSA: McCain 49, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 47)

No convention bounce in Virginia.


Strategic Vision (R): McCain 43, Obama 46 (Trend: McCain 42, Obama 47)

Even though the data is sparse, what we have suggests that McCain made big gains in what are traditional red states (Montana and North Dakota), while just incremental gains (or losses) in the other battleground states. Actually, those "incremental" gains or losses look more like statistical noise than actual movement. So other than solidify the numbers in already-Red states, there's been very little movement where it actually matters.

Expect an avalanche of polling in the next couple of weeks (much of it from us here at Daily Kos) that will allow us to paint a clearer picture of where the race actually stands at the moment. But for now, assume it's pretty much tied. Given this has all been taken during McCain's high-water mark (to date), that's pretty encouraging for our team.

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