10/20 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 50, McCain 42

by DemFromCT

Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 04:32:02 AM PDT

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 50-42. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 50 (50) 42 (43) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 50 (48) 44 (45) 2.8 LV
Rasmussen: 50 (51) 46 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (48) 42 (41) 3.4 LV
Battleground: 49 (49) 45 (45) 3.5 LV

Yesterday
Gallup: 52 (50) 42 (42) 2 RV See also the LV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP: 47 (47) 42 (40) 3.3 LV alternate link

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +7 Fri, +7 Sat and +8 Sun. Today's polling will not completely reflect Colin Powell's endorsement (or the less important but still politically potent announcement of Obama's 150 million Sep. fundraiser); more reflective data on that will start tomorrow.

Zogby:

Obama gained two points from yesterday’s report, while McCain slipped seven-tenths of a point. It was the first day Obama has gained following three consecutive days in which his numbers slipped and McCain’s numbers increased. During the 14 days of the tracking poll, Obama has led by as much as 6.2 points and as little as 1.9 points.

Obama’s gain to nearly 50% support is the highest level of support he has received since the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking began two weeks ago.

Yesterday, we introduced the graph of how each candidate does with his own party, as well as the data graph showing how independents are breaking. We will be updating this data periodically from now until the election.

Both will be interesting to follow over the next three days.

Update [2008-10-20 8:6:37 by DemFromCT]:: some partial ABC poll data:

Views of the Palin selection, naturally, are highly partisan. But majorities of moderates (62 percent), young adults (59 percent) and women (56 percent) all say it makes them less confident in McCain's judgment. (More women than men say so.) So do near majorities, 48 percent, of white women and married women alike.

The pick plays better in the GOP base: 70 of Republicans, 68 percent of evangelical white Protestants and 67 percent of conservatives say the selection of Palin makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making.

On Ayers, similarly, 62 percent of conservatives and 67 percent of Republicans say it's a legitimate issue. Just 29 percent of moderates, 12 percent of liberals and 10 percent of Democrats agree.

More on Sarah Palin's effect on the race here.