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Thursday, October 09, 2008

Its Simple...It All About An Obama Landslide...Updated

Undecided Racists: "I Like McCain.....But I Love My Job More"

Wall Street and GOP has sent a loud and clear message to the average low information voter that your screwed. With November election upon us one thing becoming clear we are all in the same economic boat, creating desperation and panic even among the rich. Not even the GOP can push aside the talk about the realities facing the " Middle Class." Barack understands that McCain endlessly attacks on his character is beneath contempt. But, what McCain and the GOP has not understood that Barack is not a typical Democrat. Barack responded to McCain's attracts yesterday this is what he had to say, "I can take it for for more weeks because we can't take four more years of the same. Barack will not be distracted by the myths McCain is trying to create. This Democrat is fight back by keeping the middle class concerns front and center when he says "Their are better times ahead... I know times are tough and I know you are anxious about the future, but this not the time for fear or for panic, this is the time for resolve and study leadership.......and that why I running for President of the Unite State Of America."

Barack tells McCain, " say it to my face."

This post is going to seem slightly less relevant now that Gallup has come in showing an 11-point lead for Obama. But the other five daily tracking polls (yes, there are now that many trackers) all showed movement toward John McCain. Between the Gallup result and Obama's very strong state polling, I am inclined to think that this particular ebb in the tracking polls is mostly statistical noise. That notwithstanding, it's worth considering Chris Bowers' point at Open Left. What, realistically, is Obama's ceiling in this election? The better a candidate's standing in the polls, the harder it ought to be pick up additional support. In part, this is simply because the more voters that you have in your column, the fewer there are available to convert. But this is still a highly partisan country, we tend to have close elections, and things certainly aren't going to be any easier for a black candidate. If Obama is ahead by something like 7-8 points ahead nationally, that means that he has persuaded just about all of the persuadables, and he's left looking to covert people like those in Ben Smith's anecdote.
An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks.

"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."
If those sorts of people are the undecideds -- and when Obama is winning Pennsylvania by 12 points or something, that's probably what we're looking at -- then Obama really is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Further gains are going to be difficult to come by, which means that his polls are more likely to go down than to continue going up. (Indeed, our model assumes that the race will tighten some). Then again, when six out of ten Americans thinks we're headed for a depression, perhaps the ordinary rules go out the window.

26 Days and Counting: I Voted For Hillary

With time running out McCain and his team
are rolling out the welcome mat to a small segment of persuadables voters each time they ask "Who is Barack Husein Obama?" Watch this video below ("I Voted For Hillary") to get a better understanding who McCain is targeting. Shara Plain represents the "low information voter" (she speaks directly to them) and with every wink she is trying to closed the gap and stop an Obama landslide in an effort to save face for McCain on November 5th and of course secure her place in the GOP 2012 campaign. Its that simple.

If that not enough: Playing Terrorist Card

"He's Got The Bloodlines"

McCain-Palin supporters at a Palin rally tell us what they think of the "terrorist" running for president. More accusations from McCain supporters in Pennsylvania that Obama is a "commie faggot" and a Muslim terrorist here.

The Polls:
Gallup's latest: Bradley Effect News
While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters' self-reported attitudes are taken into account.

Palin/McCain's Nastiness Driving Up Unfavorables

Today's tracking polls (updated):

Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Research 2000: 51 (51) 41 (41) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 48 (47) 44 (45) 2.8 LV
Battleground: 48 (49) 45 (45) 3.5 LV
Rasmussen: 50 (51) 45 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (45) 41 (44) 3.2 LV
Gallup: 52 (52) 41 (41) 2 RV

Obama's lead runs from +3 (Battleground) to +11 (Gallup). Obama's range is 47-52, while McCain's is 41-45. IEM has it at 80.6-18.2 Obama-McCain and Intrade has 74.9-25.4 if you want to bid on the election. figures it a 90.7% chance of an Obama win (Nate notes the same bemusement we all have about the ARG poll with an 8 point Obama lead in W VA.)

Sarah Palin's unruly mob campaign rallies are a news story, but Sarah Palin's dropping fav/unfav in the face of a stable race are a bigger news story.


Palin's approval ratings are also sliding and she has almost a 1-1 fav/unfav rating, with 46% rating her favorably and 43% rating her unfavorably.

Research 2000:

There's no reservoir of good will with either Palin or McCain (look at his unfav's as well). This background is going to drive a good deal of reaction in the next few days, regardless of what you hear on cable TV.

How well are the Palin/McCain attacks working? Rasmussen and Gallup are viewing this as some variation of a 'stable' lead. For example, Gallup:

Signifying a general stability in the race, Obama has maintained a share of the vote between 48% and 52% over the last two weeks, while McCain's share during that same time period has been between 41% and 45%.

and Rasmussen:

The race remains quite stable--for the past fourteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day while McCain has been at 44% of 45%.

Here are some new post-debate polls to add to the previously described CNN (Obama 54-30), CBS (Obama 40-26) and SUSA - WA (Obama 54-29) polls that showed a clear Obama win.

USA Today/Gallup (MoE +/- 4):

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama convinced many more viewers to think more favorably of him during Tuesday night's presidential debate than did his Republican opponent, John McCain, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll signals.

While 53% of the 735 people surveyed said their opinions of Obama had not changed, 34% said they thought more favorably of him and 12% viewed him less favorably. All 735 said they had watched the debate.

The reactions to McCain were almost mirror opposites: 54% said their opinions about him had not changed, 33% felt less favorable and 12% felt more favorable.

The poll also shows that among those surveyed, 56% thought Obama did the "better job" at the debate, to 23% who said that about McCain. Fifteen percent said the candidates' performances were "equal.

Rasmussen (MoE +/- 3):

Voters say Barack Obama beat John McCain in Tuesday night’s presidential debate 45% to 28%, but they also think McCain is better prepared to be president than Obama by an 11-point margin.

Over one-quarter of voters (28%) didn’t pick either man as the winner of the debate, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken Wednesday evening.

Sixty-one percent (61%) say McCain is prepared to be president, while 50% feel that way about Obama. While 28% say McCain isn’t ready to be the chief executive, 43% say that of the Democratic nominee.

Update: Jeb Report Post

A Landslide Strategy

You don't buy 30-minute chunks of national TV time if your goal is to eke out a narrow victory. You do it if your goal is to blow your opponent out of the water. And you do it if you realize that the bigger your margin of victory, the more you can get done in your first few months as President.

In short, you do it if you're as interested in governing effectively as you are interested in winning.

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