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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama 52 McCain 42

NBC/WSJ Poll 10/17-20 RV (10/4-5) MoE +/- 2.9

Obama 52 (49)
McCain 42 (43)

The most important things to know from this poll:

"Voters have reached a comfort level with Barack Obama. The doubts and question marks have been erased," said Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster who conducts the poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.

On taxes: +14 Obama
On the economy: +21 Obama
On temperament +20 Obama

On Sarah Palin (my bold):

The one candidate whose popularity has fallen is Gov. Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee. Voters are less likely to see her in a positive light, and much more likely to report negative feelings.

Fifty-five percent of voters say Gov. Palin isn't qualified to be president
if the need arises, up from 50% two weeks ago. And when given a list of possible concerns about Sen. McCain, voters were by far most likely to say they worry about Gov. Palin's qualification to be president.

The concern about Gov. Palin may also be reflected in the enthusiasm gap between the candidates, which appeared to be closing after the conventions but has widened again. Four in 10 McCain voters call him the "lesser of two evils"; 14% of Obama voters feel the same way. Twenty-six percent of McCain voters say they are excited about their vote; twice as many Obama voters feel excited.

From WSJ:

Self-identified supporters of Republican presidential nominee John McCain aren’t that excited about the Arizona senator’s candidacy, particularly when compared to supporters of Barack Obama, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

Just over one-quarter, 26%, of McCain’s supporters said they are "excited" to vote for him this fall, while over one-third, 34%, said they were just "satisfied" to cast their ballot for McCain. Perhaps the most troubling number for McCain is 39% — that’s the number of his supporters who said they were voting for him "as the lesser of two evils."

Obama’s supporters are doubly as excited with their candidate, with a majority, 52%, stating they are "excited" to vote for the Illinois senator, and just 14% identified him "as the lesser of two evils." Like McCain voters, however, one-third of Obama’s supporters, 33%, said they were just "satisfied" with casting their ballot for him.


Nate Silver ( wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.

Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Research 2000: 50 (50) 42 (42) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 50 (50) 42 (44) 2.8 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (47) 41 (42) 3.4 LV
Rasmussen: 50 (50) 46 (46) 2 LV
Battleground: 48 (49) 47 (45) 3.5 LV Poll goes back to 10/14 and to 10/20
Gallup: 52 (52) 41 (41) 2 RV See also the LV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP: 47 (47) 41 (41) 3.3 LV alternate link
ABC/WaPo: 53 (53) 44 (44) 3 LV

All trackers are data from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Pew: 52 (50) 38 (40) 2.5 LV
Ipsos/McClatchy:50 (48) 42 (39) 3.5 LV
NBC/WSJ: 52 (49) 42 (43) 2.9 RV

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