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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

State of the Race: one week out

The averages from 9/15 to today. "Over 50" indicate those states in which a candidate is polling above 50 percent, safe from the whims of undecided voters.

State EVs Poll Over 50? 10/23 Total EVs

Safe Obama states 207

MN 10 O+13.1 Y O+13.0 217
NH 4 O+12.1 Y O+12.9 221
WI 10 O+11.4 Y O+12.4 231
IA 7 O+10.8 Y O+12.1 238
PA 21 O+9.6 Y O+10.8 259
NM 5 O+9.0 Y O+9.0 264
VA 13 O+8.4 Y O+8.7 277
OH 20 O+5.7 N O+6.4 297
CO 9 O+5.7 Y O+5.8 306
NV 5 O+4.2 N O+3.8 311
MO 11 O+2.5 Y O+5.1 328
ND 3 O+2.9 N O+2.9 325
NC 15 O+2.0 N O+2.8 340
FL 27 O+2.2 N O+2.6 367
IN 11 O+1.3 N M+2.8 378

MT 3 M+0.3 N M+0.3 160
GA 15 M+4.2 N M+4.7 157
AZ 10 M+5.2 N -- 142
MS 6 M+7.0 N M+9.9 132
WV 5 M+7.3 N O+6.6 126

Safe McCain states 121

Total: Obama 378, McCain 160 (Obama 378, McCain 160)

I've taken Michigan off the list because at about O+20, it's really a safe Obama state. I've also added Arizona since recent polling shows it competitive. I've got R2K in the field in Arizona this week, so we'll have our own numbers at the end of the week.

We're actually seeing some marginal gains by McCain in this analysis, but nothing to sweat -- Obama still breaks 270 courtesy of Virginia, and at O+8.4, it's nicely tucked into Obama's corner, even without the state's incredible field operation engaged. I'd bet Obama's Virginia margin exceeds the final poll composite.

Ultimately, whatever "tightening" we're seeing is offset by the fact that this thing is only a week from conclusion. McCain is out of time.

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