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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Finally- Ickes Tells The Truth

Harold Ickes: Hillary Will Need "A Few" More Super-Dels Than Obama To Catch Him

On the Hillary conference call, there was a bit of a curious moment: Harold Ickes, who's Hillary's chief delegate hunter, seemed to suggest -- perhaps wishfully -- that she would wind up the primaries only "a few" delegates behind Obama.

By midnight on June 3rd, Ickes said, "neither candidate will have achieved the number to clinch the nomination, and each candidate will have to make their case." Referring to the super-delegates, Ickes continued: "Hillary will probably have to get a few more than Obama at that point."

But a bit later, when Ickes was pressed to say how far behind she'd be in delegates once the voting concluded, he conceded: "It will be over 100." It seemed clear from the context that he'd factored in a Florida and Michigan solution to get this number.

So where are we, then? By one count, there are roughly 197 remaining uncommitted super-dels.

Assume for the sake of argument that none of these decide between now and June 3rd. And assume she ends up with 100 delegates less than Obama, as Ickes predicts.

She would then need at least three-fourths of those nearly 200 super-dels to support her -- and not Obama -- in order to overtake him. That's hardly "a few," obviously.

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